Wicked’s domestic box office is projected for one of 2024’s best opening weekends. Based on the Broadway musical, which was based on the 1995 novel and characters fromThe Wonderful Wizard of Oz, the upcoming film follows the unlikely friendship turned rivalry between the green-skinned Elphaba, who becomes the Wicked Witch of the West, and Glinda, who becomes Glinda the Good. Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande lead theWickedcastalongside Michelle Yeoh, Jeff Goldblum, Jonathan Bailey, Ethan Slater, Marissa Bode, Bowen Yang, Bronwyn James, Keala Settle, and Peter Dinklage.
Now, with just under a month to go until its release,Part 1of the musical is projected for one of the biggest domestic box office openings of 2024. According to a long-range forecast fromBoxoffice Pro,Wickedis projected for a $100-125 million domestic opening weekend. This would be one of the best of the year behindDeadpool & Wolverine($211M),Inside Out 2($155M), andBeetlejuice Beetlejuice($111M).
What Wicked’s Box Office Projections Mean For The Movie
It Won’t Suffer The Same Fate As Other Recent Musicals
Recently, live-action movie musicals, such as Steven Spielberg’sWest Side StoryandThe Color Purple, have struggled at the box office, both opening poorly and quickly fizzling out after that. It appears that, based on these early projections,Wickedwon’t suffer the same fate as other recent musicals. The difference is perhaps the presence of pop starAriana Grande in a lead role, the lasting popularity of the stage musical, and the immensely strong brand recognition ofThe Wizard of Oz.
Every Wizard Of Oz Character Who Appears In Wicked
Wicked includes many characters from the original Wizard of Oz story, but their arcs are reframed to reveal more about the complex politics of Oz.
Additionally,Universal has been conducting an extensive marketing campaignthat has increasedWicked’s visibility. This robust promotional effort, coupled with the widely appealing source material and starry ensemble cast, has resulted in strong ticket pre-sales and seems to be fueling the strong projections. Universal also made a wise decision releasingWickedin November, when it will compete withGladiator IIandMoana 2,instead of December, when it would compete withLord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim,Kraven the Hunter,Mufasa: The Lion King,Sonic the Hedgehog 3,Nosferatu, andA Complete Unknown.
Our Take On Wicked’s Box Office Projections
Movie Musicals Could Be Back In A Big Way
WithWickedprojected for one of the biggest box office openings of 2024,Part 1seems poised to change the perception of the potential for movie musicals. Following the disappointment ofThe Color PurpleandWest Side Story,Wicked’s projections indicate that audiences are willing to embrace a movie musical packed with star power and more widely appealing source material. IfWickedmeets these box office projections, it could pave the way for more ambitious musical adaptations, proving they can still triumph on the big screen.
Wicked
Cast
Wicked adapts the Broadway musical into a two-part film, following the unlikely friendship between Elphaba, born with green skin, and Glinda, a popular aristocrat, in the Land of Oz. As they navigate their contrasting paths, they evolve into Glinda the Good and the Wicked Witch of the West.
