Following the strong early reactions toMufasa: The Lion King, predicting the film’s Rotten Tomatoes score using the franchise’s history, howDisney’s live-action remakeshave performed, and more factors bring a surprising result. The 2024 film is a prequel and sequel to 2019’s live-actionThe Lion Kinghelmed by Jon Favreau. This time, Barry Jenkins was behind the virtual camera and responsible for all the major creative decisions that went into the animated movie. And while there was initially some skepticism around ifMufasawas a good idea, the early signs suggest it’s a step up for the franchise.
Although Rotten Tomatoes scores are not the end-all-be-all when it comes to determining whether a movie is good or will be a success, the critical reception to movies still can sway public opinion and signal to audiences whether they should see it in theaters or wait until its on streaming. That’s whyMufasa: The Lion King’s early reactionsbeing so positive is such a win for Disney. Fears about the film being a soulless cash grab do not have as much merit anymore. More importantly, it points toMufasa: The Lion Kinghaving a strong showing on Rotten Tomatoes.
The Lion King Movies' History On Rotten Tomatoes
The Original Animated Film Started The Franchise On A Great Note
When thinking about whatMufasa: The Lion King’s Rotten Tomatoes score could be, it’s important to look back and see how previous movies in the franchise have fared with critics. It all began in 1994 with the release of the original animatedThe Lion King. Critics adored Disney’s animated film thanks to its story, characters, and memorable music. While Rotten Tomatoes was not around at the time of the release,the original movie currently has a 92% score on the Tomatometerbased on 139 reviews. The average score was 8.5 out of 10, which is incredibly high.
The success of the original movie critically and financially led Disney to expand the series with direct-to-DVD installments inThe Lion King II: Simba’s PrideandThe Lion King 1 1/2. The sequel came out in 1998 and only scored a 67% on the Tomatometer with an average score of 6.1 out of 10 based on 12 reviews. The Timon and Pumbaa-focused film set between the first two installments was released in 2004 to a slightly better critical response. It has a 76% rating with an average score of 6.4 out of 10 from the 17 reviews on the aggregator.
After staying “Fresh” with critics for the first three animated movies,2019’s live-action remake took the franchise to “Rotten” status for the first time. Jon Favreau’s movie had incredible visual effects. Still, critics were not in favor of its beat-for-beat retelling of the animated movie and animals that lacked emotion due to their photorealism. 2019’sThe Lion King’s Rotten Tomatoes score sits at 51% with critics after taking 435 reviews into account. The average score is 6 out of 10, giving the live-action remake franchise lows in all departments with critics.
92%
67%
76%
The Lion King(2019)
51%
That means theLion Kingmovieshave an average score on Rotten Tomatoes of 71.5%. There are the highs of the original animated film, but the lows of the live-action remake also exist. With a 41% difference between the highest and lowest scores in the franchise, there’s an enormous range forMufasa: The Lion Kingto fall into. That’s with the belief that the movie won’t be deemed worse than the 2019 film or better than the original animated feature.
How Disney’s Live-Action Remakes Have Done On Rotten Tomatoes
The Live-Action Remakes Have An Uneven History On Rotten Tomatoes
While Barry Jenkins has said that heviewsMufasa: The Lion Kingas an animated movie, the film is still part of Disney’s live-action remakes initiative. The studio has been doing live-action remakes of its animated movies for 30 years now, asThe Jungle Bookwas the first to happen in 1994.The strong critical response to it led Disney to make two poorly received films based around101 Dalmatiansby 2000, leading them to take a 10-year break from doing any live-action remakes.
Jon Favreau’sThe Jungle Bookin 2016 holding the Rotten Tomatoes record at 94% on the Tomatometer
The interest in doing them again came back in a significant way with 2010 andAlice in Wonderland’s box office surpassing $1 billion. 2014’sMaleficentthen kicked off an ongoing streak of Disney making at least one live-action remake per year. There have been some hits with critics over that time, with Jon Favreau’sThe Jungle Bookin 2016 holding the Rotten Tomatoes record at 94% on the Tomatometer. 2015’sCinderellais the only other movie to score in the 80s or higher at 83%. Overall, onlynine of the 20 live-action remakes from Disney are “Fresh” on Rotten Tomatoes.
80%
41%
31%
40%
54%
83%
94%
29%
Beauty and the Beast(2017)
71%
72%
45%
57%
39%
75%
27%
64%
The Little Mermaid(2023)
Disney’s live-action remakes have been quite hit or miss with critics, asthe average score on Rotten Tomatoes is only 57%.If there is a silver lining for Disney heading intoMufasa, it could be that four of the last five live-action remakes have surpassed this average score and sit “Fresh” on the review aggregator. That could suggest that the studio has found a better approach to these films, including honoring the original and updating outdated elements or improving it in some areas.
Barry Jenkins Directing Raises Mufasa: The Lion King’s Rotten Tomatoes Expectations
The Mufasa Director Has An Incredible Track Record With Critics
The big difference forMufasa: The Lion Kingwhen it comes to its critical reception could be having Barry Jenkins as its director. He is one of Hollywood’s best working directors right now and has a strong track record of delivering films that are critically acclaimed. To help put this in perspective, Barry Jenkins' lowest-scored movie on Rotten Tomatoes still has an 85% rating on the Tomatometer. The two other movies he’s made - including the Best Picture winning filmMoonlight- have a score of 90% or higher.
85%
98%
If Beale Street Could Talk(2018)
95%
While Jenkins' incredible track record on Rotten Tomatoes even extends to film’s he’s produced or TV shows he’s been involved in, his filmography speaks for itself.The average critic score on Rotten Tomatoes for movies he’s directed is 92.6%. The staggeringly high number is one of the many reasonswhyMufasa’s reactions are not surprising for Barry Jenkins. He’s only directed movies that critics have warmly received. Even if his latest is very different from what he’s done before, his filmmaking and storytelling abilities can still translate. That seems to be what’s happened withMufasa.
Final Verdict: Mufasa’s Rotten Tomatoes Score Will Be 78%
Taking the history of theLion Kingfranchise, Disney’s live-action remakes, and Barry Jenkins into account, a general range forMufasa: The Lion King’s Rotten Tomatoes score becomes a bit more clear. To refresh, theLion Kingmovies average a score near 71%, Disney’s live-action remakes average a score near 57%, and Jenkins' films average a nearly 93% score. The history withLion Kingand Jenkins, coupled with the stronger early reactions, provide some level of confidence thatMufasa’s score will be much higher than the average for Disney’s remakes.
Mufasa: The Lion King’s review embargo lifts on December 17, so its Rotten Tomatoes score will be revealed shortly after
Specifically,I think thatMufasa: The Lion King’s Rotten Tomatoes score will settle around 78%with critics. That would be the lowest mark of Jenkins' career by a noticeable margin, but it would still keep all of his movies firmly in “Fresh” territory. With the reactions callingMufasaan improvement on 2019’sThe Lion Kingin several ways, it makes sense that it would score significantly higher than its 51%. This would allowMufasa: The Lion Kingto have the fourth-highest score among Disney’s live-action remakes, which sounds right.
