From the possible underperformance ofAvatar: Fire and Ashto the possible success ofA Minecraft Movie, 2025’s box office predictions promise some big surprises. It’s been an interesting few years for the box office since the pandemic hit in 2020. There have been box office failures no one could’ve predicted, like Marvel Studios releasing a historic flop. But there have also been plenty of success stories that no one could’ve predicted, either, like 2023’s “Barbenheimer” phenomenon.2024 brought some huge surprises at the box office, like the success ofLonglegsand the failure ofJoker: Folie à Deux.
2025 is set to be another fascinating year for the film industry.Marvel is back to releasing three movies a year, Paul Thomas Anderson is putting out his most expensive film to date, and James Cameron is delivering anotherAvatarsequel. There are some 2025 movies whose fate seems to have been decided.Thunderbolts*is getting a lot of positive buzz from its trailers, so it’ll probably be a sizable hit.Mickey 17, on the other hand, is an unabashedly weird movie with a very steep budget, so it’s likely to flop. But 2025’s box office could yield some surprises.
10Avatar: Fire & Ash Won’t Be 2025’s Highest Grossing Movie
Highest Grossing Movie 2025
Since James Cameron is releasing a newAvatarmovie in 2025, it seems as though all the other blockbusters will just be playing for second place.The first and secondAvatarmovies were the highest-grossing movies of their respective years by far.Avatar: Fire and Ashis practically guaranteed to make another $2 billion and sit comfortably in the top spot at the 2025 box office. But what if that’s not the case?
For all the talk thatAvatarhas had no cultural impact, its movies sure seem to be popular.Cameron’s stunning visuals demand to be seen on the biggest screen possible with a pair of 3D glasses, so they get audiences out to theaters to buy the most expensive ticket there.Fire and Ashwill undoubtedly be a huge success, but it might not be the highest-grossing film of the year. There’s a lot of highly anticipated titles coming out in 2025.
9A Minecraft Movie Will Be A Huge Success
Video Game Movie Success
After the success of HBO’sThe Last of Us, Prime Video’sFallout, and Illumination’sThe Super Mario Bros. Movie, Hollywood seems adamant to turn every recognizable video game franchise into a movie or TV show.On April 4,Minecraftis coming to the big screen in a film adaptation aptly titledA Minecraft Movie. Whenthe trailer forA Minecraft Moviedropped, it was criticized for its lack of faithfulness to the source material and its bizarre tone.
This game has millions of fans around the world, and even if the movie is terrible, a large chunk of that fan base will likely check it out just for the memes, or for the so-bad-it’s-good quality.
Based on that reaction to the marketing, it seems to be a flop in the making.But don’t underestimate the size ofMinecraftas an intellectual property. This game has millions of fans around the world, and even if the movie is terrible, a large chunk of that fan base will likely check it out just for the memes, or for the so-bad-it’s-good quality.
8Captain America: Brave New World Will Be The MCU’s Biggest Box Office Hit
Captain America 4 Box Office
Marvel Studios is releasing three movies this year:Captain America: Brave New World, the first solo movie starring Anthony Mackie’s Sam Wilson as Cap;Thunderbolts*, about a team of reformed supervillains coming together, a la the Suicide Squad; andThe Fantastic Four: First Steps, a reboot of Marvel’s first family.The Fantastic Fouris generally expected to be the biggest hit of the three, based on the brand recognition and the star-studded ensemble cast.
But the Fantastic Four name has been tarnished by previous adaptations that were each more disappointing than the last.Thunderbolts*revolves around B-list characters, so it’s unlikely to come out on top. ButCaptain America: Brave New Worldcould surprise pundits by becoming the MCU’s biggest success of the year. Sam isn’t as popular as Steve Rogers, but Red Hulk could get people talking.
7Wicked: For Good Will Make $1 Billion
Musical Movie Box Office
Jon M. Chu’sWicked, adapted from the first half of the Broadway musical, was one of the highest-grossing movies of 2024.Wicked’s worldwide box office haul soared past $600 million, and it’s still going strong. The second volume — originally calledWicked: Part Two, but since retitled asWicked: For Good— is set to be released later this year on November 21.Wicked: For Goodwill complete the story, with Chu and all the major cast members returning.
“People Are Seeing Me – Like, Actually Me”: Ariana Grande Explains What Her Wicked Oscar Nomination Means To Her, And She Can’t Help But Cry (Again)
Weeks after her Oscar nomination, Ariana Grande can’t stop crying while explaining how special it feels to be recognized for her role in Wicked.
AlthoughWickedhas been a massive box office success, it’s still a far cry from $1 billion, and it’s unlikely to hit that milestone.Wicked: For Good, on the other hand, might break the billion-dollar barrier. By the time it comes out, some audiences who missed the first part in theaters will have watched it at home and gotten excited about the second part, which could boost the numbers.
6The Naked Gun Reboot Will Be The Long-Awaited Comeback For The Comedy Genre
Naked Gun Reboot Success
With the odd exception likeBarbieandDeadpool & Wolverine, it’s been a while since comedy was a viable genre at the box office.It’s tough to sell comedies internationally, because they often rely on local reference points that don’t cross the language barrier.In the 2000s and 2010s, studios could rely on DVD sales to recoup their theatrical losses, but DVD sales are drastically down in the age of streaming. For years, the comedy genre has been in need of a comeback at the box office.
On August 1, Paramount is releasinga reboot ofThe Naked Gunfranchisestarring Liam Neeson as Frank Drebin.Since it has franchise recognition, if it’s well-received, it could be a huge hit at the domestic box office. And sinceThe Naked Gunuses sight gags and slapstick humor, it might even translate internationally.
5Elio Will Be Pixar’s Biggest Original Film Since Coco
Elio Pixar Movie
Pixar enjoyed a major comeback last year withthe box office success ofInside Out 2. The studio’s commercial performance had been hit-and-miss for a couple of years.Onwardunderperformed right at the beginning of the pandemic,Elementalmade a decent profit but fell far short of Pixar’s biggest hits, andLightyear— linked to Pixar’s most reliable franchise — was an outright flop.
Inside Out 2was a bona fide smash hit: the highest-grossing movie of 2024 and the highest-grossing animated movie of all time.
On June 13, Pixar is releasing a new original movie,Elio, a sci-fi adventure about a young boy being whisked away by aliens.AfterInside Out 2rehabilitated the Pixar brand,Eliois in good stead for box office success. If it’s as touching and spectacular as the trailer promises, it could be Pixar’s biggest original movie sinceCoco.
4Paul Thomas Anderson’s New Movie Will Turn A Decent Profit
Independent Film Box Office
Boogie Nightsdirector Paul Thomas Anderson has an as-yet-untitled movie set to arrive in theaters on August 8.No official details have been revealed about the film’s plot, but it’s rumored to be a modernized adaptation of Thomas Pynchon’sVineland. It’s also said to be Anderson’s most action-packed film to date, withThe Battle of Baktan Crossfloated as a potential title. It’s also the most expensive film of Anderson’s career by far.
Anderson’s latest effort carries a hefty budget of $140 million, which will require it to gross at least $300 million worldwide to turn a profit (viaVariety).Warner Bros. is banking on Leonardo DiCaprio’s star power to boost the film’s commercial returns, but Anderson has never had a hit of that scale. His highest-grossing movie,There Will Be Blood, grossed just $76 million — a little over half the budget of his latest. The movie seems destined to bomb, but it could surprise everyone and turn a decent profit beyond the $300 million margin.
3Michael Will Become The New Highest Grossing Music Biopic
Michael Jackson Biopic
One of the most popular trends in Hollywood right now is biopics of popular bands and musicians.Some of these biopics have underperformed, but a lot of them have yielded blockbuster box office returns, likeElvis,Rocketman, andStraight Outta Compton.Audiences mainly come to these movies for the chance to hear iconic music out of giant theatrical speakers. As it stands,the highest-grossing music biopic isBohemian Rhapsody, which grossed $910 million off an awesome soundtrack full of Queen’s classics.
On October 3, Lionsgate is releasingMichael, a big-budget biopic of Michael Jackson chronicling his life from his childhood work with the Jackson 5 to his death in 2009. The King of Pop will be played by his own nephew, Jaafar Jackson. While Jackson remains a controversial figure, his music is still popular enough thatMichaelcould be an even bigger hit thanBohemian Rhapsody.
2Five Nights At Freddy’s 2 Will Outgross The First Movie
Horror Movie Box Office 2025
In 2023,Five Nights at Freddy’sbroke a bunch of box office records. Despite receiving mostly negative reviews from critics, and being released on Peacock on the same day it arrived in theaters,Five Nights at Freddy’smanaged to gross $284.1 million at the worldwide box office.It had the biggest opening weekend for a Halloween release, the biggest opening for a Blumhouse production, and became the highest-grossing horror movie of 2023.
The movie was filled with Easter eggs for long-time fans and those long-time fans responded enthusiastically.
This success is a testament to how popular theFive Nights at Freddy’sgames are.The movie was filled with Easter eggs for long-time fans and those long-time fans responded enthusiastically. The impeccable box office run of the first movie will be tough to top, but there’s a sequel coming out on December 5, and if it puts fan service first again, it could be an even bigger hit.
1Superman Won’t Make Enough For James Gunn’s New DCU To Be Viable
DCU Box Office
James Gunn’s rebooted DC Universe is set to begin proper in 2025 with the release ofSuperman.There’s a lot more riding onSupermanthan the average big-budget tentpole movie. It doesn’t have to just make back its production budget and marketing costs; it has to make enough money to justify launching a shared cinematic universe to rival that of Marvel.The firstSupermantrailerhas all the promising signs of a satisfying reboot: bright colors, faithful characterization, and a powerful sense of hope.
But even if Gunn delivers the greatestSupermanmovie ever made, it still might not gross enough to make the DCU viable. The past decade’s worth of flops and disappointments have seriously damaged the DC brand. Gunn’sSupermanrebootlooks fantastic, but it might not be enough to redeem DC in casual audiences’ eyes.
